Abstract: This paper identifies the major political and economic constraints that impact the demand-side of electricity industry re-structuring processes. It then describes how these constraints have been addressed and how this has harmed market efficiency and system reliability. Finally, the paper proposes demand-side regulatory interventions to manage these constraints in a manner that limits the harm to wholesale market efficiency.

Abstract: Many commodities are traded on both a spot market and a derivative market. We show that an incumbent producer may use purely financial derivatives to extract rent from a potential entrant. It can do so by selling derivatives to a large buyer for more than his expected production level. This exclusionary scheme comes at the cost of inefficiently deterring entry and creating too much risk for the buyer. We further show that it can still be used when contracts are offered anonymously through a broker, as the incumbent can signal its identity by adjusting the contracting terms.

Abstract: This paper examines how the increasing penetration of intermittent renewable generation can change the economic landscape for merchant power investment in conventional thermal generation. An equilibrium model of generation investment is developed, based on the long-standing principles of finding the optimal mix of capital intensive and higher marginal cost resources to serve a market with fluctuating demand. This model is then applied to data on electricity markets from several regions of the western United States to examine how the interaction of increasing wind capacity and electricity market design affects the equilibrium mix of thermal capacity and the revenues earned by renewable suppliers.

Abstract: The emergence of U.S. shale gas resources to economic viability affects the nation’s energy outlook and the expected role of natural gas in climate policy. Even in the face of the current shale gas boom, however, questions are raised about both the economics of this industry and the wisdom of basing future environmental policy on projections of large shale gas supplies. Analysis of the business model appropriate to the gas shales suggests that, though the shale future is uncertain, these concerns are overstated. The policy impact of the shale gas is analyzed using two scenarios of greenhouse gas control—one mandating renewable generation and coal retirement, the other using price to achieve a 50% emissions reduction. The shale gas is shown both to benefit the national economy and to ease the task of emissions control. However, in treating the shale as a “bridge” to a low carbon future there are risks to the development of technologies, like capture and storage, needed to complete the task.

Abstract: Economic evaluations of alternative electric generating technologies typically rely on comparisons between their expected life-cycle production costs per unit of electricity supplied. The standard lifecycle cost metric utilized is the "levelized cost" per MWh supplied. This paper demonstrates that this metric is inappropriate for comparing intermittent generating technologies like wind and solar with dispatchable generating technologies like nuclear, gas combined cycle, and coal. Levelized cost comparisons are a misleading metric for comparing intermittent and dispatchable generating technologies because they fail to take into account differences in the production profiles of intermittent and dispatchable generating technologies and the associated large variations in the market value of the electricity they supply. Levelized cost comparisons overvalue intermittent generating technologies compared to dispatchable base load generating technologies. These comparisons also typically overvalue wind generating technologies compared to solar generating technologies. Integrating differences in production profiles, the associated variations in the market value of the electricity at the times it is supplied, and the expected life-cycle costs associated with different generating technologies is necessary to provide meaningful economic comparisons between them. This market-based framework also has implications for the appropriate design of procurement auctions created to implement renewable energy procurement mandates, the efficient structure of production tax credits for renewable energy, incentives for and the evaluation of electricity storage technologies and the evaluation of the additional costs of integrating intermittent generation into electric power networks.

Abstract:The European Commission has launched a number of antitrust investigations against the major energy incumbents in the aftermath of the energy sector inquiry. Most of them have already been settled under Article 9 of the EC Regulation 1/2003 and the undertakings offered far-reaching, sometimes structural, commitments. This article studies the 2008 investigation into price manipulation in the German electricity wholesale market. In spite of no convincing evidence and flaws in the assessment, the Commission was able to negotiate from E.ON substantial capacity divestments.

Abstract:This paper first reviews some of the main contributions of the new institutional economics to the analysis of the process of competitive transformation of network industries. It shows that neoinstitutional analysis is complementary to the microeconomics of rational pricing, since it accounts for the decisive role of an institutional framework adapted to new transactions. It emphasizes the importance of the political reform process, which draws on the conditions of attractiveness and feasibility to define an initial reorganization of property rights in these industries. The paper then analyzes in this light some of the main challenges ahead for electricity regulation: the question of investment in generation capacities and the link to long term contracts, the regulation of wholesale market power, the support to Renewable Energy Sources for Electricity (RES-E) and the design of new regulatory authorities.

Abstract: Emissions trading is a “cap and trade” regulation aimed at reducing the cost of meeting environmental targets. This paper studies how this regulation interacts with energy and competition policies. Two vertically related and imperfectly competitive markets are investigated: 1) the electricity market (output market); 2) the market for natural gas (input market). The effect of energy policy is simulated by assuming that the supporting scheme is able to improve the competitiveness of the low carbon technologies which are able, at the same time, to increase security of supply. The effect of the competition policy is accounted for by assuming that firms try to meet a profit target rather than to maximize profits, because of the regulatory pressure exerted by the competition and sector-specific authorities. By using the dominant firm model (in both markets) and the auction approach (in the output market), the paper highlights a trade-off between these policies. Without regulatory pressure, the result is ambiguous. Together, environmental and energy policies can lead to an increase in market power and its effects, but this in turn not necessarily amplifies their performances. However the worst case, the absolute increase in pollution in the short-run, is excluded. With regulatory pressure, the environmental and energy policies may imply a decrease in market power and this in turn can lessen their performance. In addition, this time the absolute increase in pollution in the short-run is not only possible but even likely. However this unfavourable effect would happen only if the pollution price is sufficiently low, that is if the environmental policy is rather modest. From the policy implications point of view, the analysis suggests what follows. If the models used to estimate performances and costs of environmental and energy policies ignore the full role of imperfect competition (the impact on prices com

Abstract:When building a cross-border transmission line (a so-called interconnector) as a for-profit (merchant) project, where the regulator has required that capacity allocation be done non-discriminatorily by explicit auction, the identity of the investor can affect the profitability of the interconnector project and, once operational, the resulting allocation of its capacity. Specifically, when the investor is a generator (hereafter the integrated generator) who also can use the interconnector to export its electricity to a distant location, then, once operational, the integrated generator will bid more aggressively in the allocation auctions to increase the auction revenue and thus its profits. As a result, the integrated generator is more likely to win the auction and the capacity is sold for a higher price. This lowers the allocative efficiency of the auction, but it increases the expected ex-ante profitability of the merchant interconnector project. Unaffiliated, independent generators, however, are less likely to win the auction and, in any case, pay a higher price, which dramatically lowers their revenues from exporting electricity over this interconnector.

Abstract: We try to better understand the comparative advantages of structural and behavioral measures of deregulation in electricity markets, an eminent policy issue for which the experimental evidence is scant and problematic. In the present paper we investigate theoretically and experimentally the effects of the introduction of a forward market on competition in electricity markets. We compare this scenario with the best alternative, reducing concentration by adding one more competitor by divestiture. Our work contributes to the literature by introducing more realistic cost configurations, teasing apart number and asset effect, and studying numbers of competitors that reflect better the market concentration in the European electricity industries. Our experimental data suggest that introducing a forward market has a positive effect on the aggregate supply in markets with two or three major competitors, configurations typical for both the newly accessed and the old European Union member states. Introducing a forward market also increases efficiency. Our data furthermore suggest, in contrast to previous findings, that the effects of introducing a forward market is stronger than adding one more competitor both in markets with two, and particularly three, producers. Our data thus suggest that the behavioral measure of introducing a forward market is more effective than the structural measure of adding one more competitor by divestiture. Thus competition authorities should, in line with EU law, focus on the behavioral measure of introducing, or at least facilitating the emergence of, forward markets rather than on the structural measure of lowering market concentration by divestiture.

Abstract: Ensuring access to a truly ‘European’ energy grid for every consumer and supplier in the European Union is a core objective of the single market project. From the first wave of liberalization directives up until the ‘draft’ framework guidelines of September 2010 on capacity allocation and congestion management being prepared by ERGEG on behalf of the new Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER), the objective of the access regime in both sector is similar: to creating capacity to compete. The objective of this paper is to review and compare from a legal point of view the evolution of the EU access regime in the electricity and gas sectors. We find strong similarities for two otherwise very different sectors, as well as an influence of the electricity regime on the gas regime. The sector-specific regulatory regime, supported by the use of competition law, organises a market design in both sectors based as much as possible on short-term capacity allocation with a liquid secondary trading platforms. The imposition of UIOLI mechanisms and an increased focus on firmness of capacity is certainly the way forward but implementation still is an issue. The right portfolio of capacity durations that are to be proposed by TSOs also remains an open question. The specific features of these two commodities result however in slightly different results in practice. In electricity, the development of market coupling initiatives creates new regulatory challenges but price convergence is now in sight. In gas, the progress has been slower and efficiently functioning spot markets are yet to emerge.

Abstract: Turkey has been going through a liberalization process in its electricity market over the last decade. So far, the regulatory content of the market reforms has been in the center of attention in the literature, to the negligence of regulatory governance. However, recent studies, which applied the theoretical insights of new institutional economics to utilities regulation, have demonstrated that political endowments of the country draw the boundaries to which extent such regulatory content can be effectively implemented. In line with these studies, this paper adopts an institutional approach and attempts to identify the political endowments of Turkey in order to further analyze whether the market reforms succeeded in bringing about sufficient checks to cure the institutional problems. In other words, the paper takes a picture of the overall regulatory arena. The results show that the current regulatory structure, especially government-regulator relations, fails to meet good regulatory governance criteria. The paper also provides some policy suggestions.

Abstract: If Europe is serious about climate change, it has to reduce its overall greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050, thereby effectively going to a (near-) zero carbon energy and thus, electricity system. The European Climate Foundation, Eurelectric, and the International Energy Agency have consequently published a study elaborating on the final goal of this transition. The studies project scenarios of how such a (near-) zero electricity system would look like and provide recommendations on the policies needed to guide the transition. In this paper, we observe that these studies tell a tale with many similarities. In spite of increased energy efficiency, the electricity demand is projected to increase substantially, with up to 50% from today towards 2050, due to shifts from other sectors towards electricity. This demand will be supplied by a minimum of 40% electricity generation by RES, with the remainder being filled up with nuclear and fossils with CCS. The importance of grid reinforcement, expansion, and planning in this context is emphasized in all three studies. While all three studies further recommend relying on the EU ETS for the transition, the European Climate Foundation and the International Energy Agency consider continuing with targets for RES in combination with a more harmonized EU RES support scheme.

Abstract: Smart Grids require innovations in the electricity networks, mainly on the level of the distributed system operator (DSO). A main objective is to increase the share of distributed generation (DG) connected to that network level, but also to enable load management on the demand side. This paper analyses network innovations in the context of the regulatory framework, namely incentive regulation. It is structured as follows: The first section examines how cost-based and price-based regulatory schemes influence RD&D by regulated companies. This is followed by a discussion of various regulatory instruments to stimulate innovation. The third section provides a more general discussion of the pros and cons of promoting network innovations via network regulation.